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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a Test.

A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and no wins, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Three years further on, same story. Five more years went by and, yes, you know the rest.

Recent History

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but not the outcomes.

In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Through their brilliance, physical dominance, their chicanery, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that some may have held for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality.

Key Absences

Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and had he been declared fit then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.

In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.

Replacement Concerns

Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of limited game time.

Once Rae's shift ends, his replacement takes over. While competent, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Strategic Decisions

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, despite numerical advantage, but their final surge secured victory.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, set-piece issues.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests recently, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and fewer after halftime.

Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.

Required Performance

Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - maintaining intensity.

In recent years, successful opponents have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Townsend's team. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. A yellow card? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

But what if everything does go right? Explosive start. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.